Is there still hope for hydrogen fuel cell cars?

More than 5,200 hydrogen fuelling stations will be operational worldwide by 2020 – that’s the verdict of a new report by Pike Research which suggests annual investment in hydrogen stations will reach $1.6billion (see article).

However, with the majority of...

leading carmakers seemingly focusing on electric cars is this investment in hydrogen technology really justified?

Sales target

In April, Pike Research made another forecast about fuel cell vehicles, predicting that commercial sales would reach the key milestone of one million vehicles by 2020 (see article) – meaning cumulative sales of 1.2million vehicles by the end of that year. The analysis suggests that during the pre-commercialisation period of 2010-2014, around 10,000 fuel cell vehicles will be deployed. Then after that phase, 57,000 vehicles will be sold in 2015 before they ramp up to 390,000 vehicles annually by 2020.

It points out however, that while fuel cell passenger cars have garnered a significant level of interest, the market is likely to be one of the last to go fully commercial. In particular, it points out that there will not be true consumer demand until: costs are reduced; market conditions or regulations place a premium on zero exhaust emissions; and hydrogen infrastructure is ramped up to meet the demands of drivers.

Support and opposition

There appears to be both support and opposition towards fuel cell vehicles in key sectors of the market.

The majority of car manufacturers continue to carry out research and development into fuel cell cars, albeit not at the same pace or with the same substantial investments they are committing to electrification. For example, a coalition of 13 major Japanese automakers and energy companies – including the likes of Toyota, Honda and Nissan – joined together in January to expand the introduction of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles by 2015 and to develop a hydrogen supply network throughout Japan (see article). The plan is for them to approach local governments and discuss plans to deal with initial consumer demand.

In addition, in May, Toyota opened its first hydrogen refuelling station in the US to provide hydrogen for the Toyota fuel cell hybrid demonstration programme vehicles in the Los Angeles area.

It’s not just Japanese carmakers that are committing to the technology either. In February, Hyundai introduced its third-generation Tucson iX hydrogen fuel cell vehicle equipped with a 100kW fuel cell system and two hydrogen storage cylinders (see article) – it can travel more than 400miles on a single fuelling, which is a 76 per cent improvement when compared to its predecessor. Mercedes-Benz too has shown its own commitment by establishing a production facility for next-generation fuel cell stacks in Canada as it targets series production in 2013 (see article).

Despite these investments from carmakers, support appears to be dwindling among governments. The UK has placed its focus firmly on electric car charging points and rebates for buying electric cars, with the UK Carbon Trust’s decision to select ACAL Energy for a £1million investment as part of the Polymer Fuel Cell Challenge back in February the only notable recent commitment towards the technology.

Similarly, in the US, backing for the technology is diminishing. In his February budget to support his goal of having one million alternative fuel vehicles on US roads by 2015, President Obama increased funding for electric vehicles and electric vehicle technology; while reducing investments in the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy’s hydrogen technology programme by nearly $70million – more than 40 per cent.

TheGreenCarWebsite verdict – Too little, too late

In the minds of many fuel cell vehicle supporters, hydrogen would make an ideal alternative to petrol/diesel. In theory it can be produced domestically and from renewable energy – potentially securing both energy independence and creating a legitimately clean fuel alternative. It has potential to create millions of new jobs and could offer a significant boost to both the solar and wind energy sectors. Serious investment in hydrogen refuelling infrastructure could even represent an easier transition than moving to electric car infrastructure and eliminate fears over driving range.

The problem however, is that the technology is still a long way behind electric cars. Whereas electrification has gradually been taking place for the last 10 years through hybrid cars, such as the Toyota Prius, and now mainstream battery electric cars – such as the Nissan LEAF – hydrogen technology has been left trailing. With carmakers committing so wholeheartedly to electrification and governments following suit, there appears little room for hydrogen cars to make a significant headway at the moment.

So while debates will continue to rage with some validity that hydrogen may be the superior fuel alternative, it appears its arrival as a mainstream option will be stilted for now as electric cars offer a more immediate and affordable solution. While it will always have a role to play in industry and in powering larger fleet vehicles such as forklifts and buses, it appears that in terms of passenger cars it’s unlikely to breakthrough as anything more than a niche alternative over the next few years.

Source: Faye Sunderland, TheGreenCarWebsite